The Week Ahead: Dec 15 – 21
4 Game slates: BOS, BUF, CAR, NJ, OTT, PHI, TB, TOR
3 Game slates: ANA, CAL, CHI, COL, CLB, DAL, DET, EDM, FLA, LA, MIN, MON, NYI, NYR, PITT, STL, WASH, WINN
2 Game slates: ARI, NASH, SJ, VAN
Back to Back games: ANA, BOS, BUFF(twice), CAL, CAR, CHI, COL, MIN, NJ, NYI, NYR, OTT, PHI, TB(twice), TOR
By Lane Myer
* NOTE: it’s a heavier than normal Sunday schedule this week which translates to a number of Saturday & Sunday back to back scenarios which can be beneficial to those looking to stream some backup goalies.
In these here, lean fantasy hockey news times, we’ll reach into the tattered burlap TTMI Fantasy Chatter mailbag* and address a letter or one.
* still not sure why this bag is labeled – BMO Bank: Rockford, with a slathering of weird blue dye stains.
This comes to us from…let’s see, looks like Chris Bloc <surname withheld> from Chicago.
Dear Lane, firstly, thanks for just being you. Can you offer some comparative analysis from this off-season’s biggest trade – James Neal for Patric Hornqvist and its direct correlation to fantasy?
Cheers,
Chris B from Chicago (sometimes Rockford)
Hey Chris B, no problem and thanks for using “direct correlation” in a fantasy hockey question. You should look into doing some hockey writing at some point.
Coming into the year, James Neal’s average draft position (ADP) and value took a hit simply from moving away from Pittsburgh’s top end talent- namely Neal’s cushy spot on Malkin’s wing, and those instant scoring opportunities when Pittsburgh loaded up with Crosby, Malkin and Neal on the PP which would inevitably slay the bluelines of most every NHL team. Neal’s ADP last year was a late first rounder – around #9-11 in standard category leagues. In 2014 his ADP dropped to #35. Essentially the move to Nashville dropped Neal 2+ rounds of average draft position.
Conversely Patric Hornqvist entered last season as a middle rounder with an ADP that might range anywhere from 125-140. With the move to Steel Graphic Design Town, Hornqvist’s ADP jumped to #96. As of right now, in standard category leagues, Hornqvist has compiled mid second round production checking in as the #17 overall fantasy player. Neal, while he hasn’t been too bad, is a bit below the pace of his ADP and he ranks #51 overall. Again these rankings are based on standard category leagues that would use goals, assists, plus/minus, PPP, and either PIMs or shorthanded points.
The counting stats
Neal – 11 goals, 7 assists, +11, 23 PIMs, 104 Shots, 1 PPG, 1 PPA, 3 GWG, 35 hits, 9 blocks
Hornqvist – 11 goals, 14 assists, +9, 12 PIMs, 96 Shots, 4 PPG, 7 PPA, 2 GWG, 31 hits, 14 blocks.
More or less it’s pretty close except when you get to the difference in their power play production. This is why we always highlight a given player’s PP TOI and their linemates. As good as Filip Forsberg has been, he’s not Malkin or Crosby, and Weber isn’t pushing the pace from the backend like Kris Letang. It should come as no surprise to learn that the Penguins are tied for the league lead in PP% with Washington at 26.4%. Conversely Nashville is second from the bottom ahead of only the lowly Sabres at 10.9%. That’s it, that’s the difference. I know what you’re thinking Chris B of Chicago (sometimes Rockford). If only someone at TTMI would have tipped off the masses to Hornqvist in the preseason.
Goalie Watch
Buffalo: Jhonas Enroth got the tap in all three of Buffalo’s starts for the week which included a bagelling of the defending champs. Enroth followed up his shutout of the Kings in predictable fashion by allowing 3 goals each to Florida and Calgary.
- Enroth – 19 starts – 2.91 GAA, .918 SV%
- Neuvirth – 11 starts – 2.87 GAA, .920 SV%
TTMI Counsel: I haven’t seen any new news regarding an injury to Neuvirth so it could simply be caution for his prior “LBI”. Meanwhile, Enroth has continued to drag his ratios down to where his SV% is now above average at .918%. This is where one should say to choose your matchups wisely with Enroth but then choosing to start Enroth against Florida and Calgary would be wise matchups. Yet he still allowed 3 goals in each of those starts.
– Calgary: So a week after Karri Ramo started all three of Calgary’s matchups over the previous week, Jonas Hiller was awarded three of Calgary’s four starts this past week.
- Hiller – 18 starts, 2.48 GAA, .913 SV%
- Ramo – 14 starts, 2.50 GAA, .911 SV%
TTMI Counsel: Ramo stopped only 15/19 against the lowly Sabres while Hiller saw his GAA plummet from 2.49 to 2.48 after allowing 5 goals in his 3 starts for the week. With the manner in which Calgary is using Hiller and Ramo, it remains imperative to own both, if that’s the best you can do in goal anyway.
– Edmonton: One would think after Viktor Fasth coughed up three goals to the Ducks in 20 minutes before getting the hook would spike his SV%, but no, Fasth remained equal for the week on that front. Ben Scrivens stopped 7/7 in relief of Fasth, but unfortunately the same fate did not carry over to his start against the Sharks which saw Scrivens flail his way to allowing 5 big ones to Pavelski and company.
- Scrivens – 18 starts, 3.21 GAA, .887 SV%
- Fasth – 10 starts, 3.29 GAA, .891 SV%
TTMI Counsel: So…Eberle in a package for Malcolm Subban, then?
– Ottawa: Business as usual as Robin Lehner returned from the IR and took one start from Craig Anderson who continued his mediocre play by allowing seven goals over his two starts for the week.
- Anderson – 18 starts, 2.58 GAA, .925 SV%
- Lehner – 11 starts, 2.76 GAA, .916 SV%
TTMI Counsel: Anderson’s market correction is in full swing, while Lehner performed well in his start against Boston allowing only 2 goals (though one shorthanded).
– St Louis remains in the mix, with Jake Allen carrying two of the week’s three starts for the Blues.
- Allen – 14 starts, 2.50 GAA, .907 SV%
- Brodeur – 2 starts, 2.64 GAA, .904 SV%
TTMI Counsel: Despite no real indication from the Blues as to how Marty Brodeur will be used, judging the Blues’ net situation thus far, it looks to be one start for Brodeur for every three starts for Allen.
Trending: The Waiver Wire
-Sean Couturier bumped his scoring streak to six games recording three goals and four assists over that span despite skating third line minutes between Matt Read and RJ Umberger. Despite the third pair usage, Couturier does see a decent amount of PP TOI at nearly two minutes per game. Additionally, Couturier is deployed on the PK over 2.5 minutes per game so if you’re in need of some potential shorthanded production, Couturier does have a shorthanded marker on the season and typically skates with Matt Read on the kill who compiled four shorthanded points alone last season. He’s also just under 50% on draws this year and has underwhelmed a bit in the hits department recording only 22 thus far.
– Nazem Kadri checks in with three goals, six assists (2 PP, 1 SH), and a +8 over the last eight Toronto matchups. Kadri’s linemates on Toronto’s second line aren’t too alluring, fantasy potential wise, with Santorelli and Winnik currently occupying those spots, but Santorelli is also on a bit of a roll (see below) so it’s working at present. What does work for you is Kadri’s 2.5 minutes per game on the power play, 40 hits in 29 games, and a 48% success rate at the dot. Santorelli actually handles the defensive portion of the second line center position, but Kadri takes the draws.
– Mika Zibanejad, in addition to owning the NHL’s most far away gaze head shot, is the proud owner of five goals and three assists over Ottawa’s last six games. In recent vintage, Zibanejad has been conjoined with Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman on Ottawa’s second line as well as Ottawa’s second PP unit where he absorbs nearly 2.4 long handed spins per game. Zibanejad has been a pretty reliable scorer on the man advantage thus far with two goals and five assists. One drawback is that Zibanejad is scoring at a 16% clip so that’s probably due for a little regression.
Trending (the wrong direction):
Drop to Waivers
– Antti Raanta has incurred 1200 Yahoo league drops in the last 24 hours partially in response to Scott Darling earning the starting gig, but also with news that Corey Crawford will likely return later this week. It’s no fault of Raanta’s , quite obviously, as in nearly 400 minutes of NHL action this season, he’s tops on the Hawks, ratio wise, at 1.85 GAA and a .944 SV%.
– Jason Zucker, while he’s still maintaining his spot on Minnesota’s second line with Koivu and Pominville, has lost his spot on Minny’s second PP unit to Nino Niederreiter. If you’re in a deep league, Zucker is still rosterable with his 11 goals and the aforementioned slot on the Wild’s second line, along with around 1.5 miinutes of PK time per game for those in shorthanded points counting leagues, but with Koivu and Pominville struggling to score goals, Zucker’s assist total stands at 4 and losing his slot on the PP isn’t going to help those concerns.
Deep (League) Cuts
– Steve Downie, while he skates on the Pen’s third line, will move up to the Malkin line at times and amazingly averages over 1.5 minutes of PP time per game. Let’s not bury the lede here, though. You own Downie for the combination of penalty minutes (114) and the mix of real time stats (43 hits) and at times, if not injured or suspended, a decent mix of points (4 goals, 9 assists, 3 PPP). As a little extra added value, Downie should be eligible at both RW and LW in your league.
– Teddy Purcell deserves a mention, in a proactive sort of way, as he’s spent the last two Oiler matchups on the top line opposite The Nuge-Hopkins and Taylor Hall. It hasn’t amounted to much so far with just an assist, one shot and a -1, but it’s has some potential for some sneaky value considering Purcell also averages 2.15 minutes per game on the man advantage. He’s another of those players that will become immediately droppable when bumped from the first line as Purcell offers nothing outside of first line minutes and his current quality of linemates. His real time stats are utterly useless as well with 9 hits and 3 blocks in 30 games.
– Mike Santorelli is quietly productive skating on the Leafs second line scoring two goals, nine assists (1 shorthanded) and is a +9 over his last 10 contested ice hockey games. Despite Santorelli’s recent scoring surge, it hasn’t translated to additional PP TOI as he is currently averaging a mere one shift per game. Santrorelli will kick in some solid real time stats with 31 hits, 14 blocks, and some occasional draws (52/108).
Fantasy Hawk Factor
Second Line Heroes Watch (for the week)
- Kane – 2 goals, 1 assist, 6 shots, -1
- Richards – 0 goals, 0 assists, 2 shots, +1
- Versteeg – 0 goals, 1 assist, 10 shots, +1
Oh you work here too?
- Toews – 0 goals, 2 assists, 1(?!) shot
- Hossa – 0 goals, 0 assists, 5 shots, +1
- Saad – 1 goal, 1 assist, 5 shots, +1
It was a slow week for everyone in the top six not named Kane or Saad. As The Overlord alluded to earlier, Richards has struggled for the last two weeks offensively and it’s probably only a matter of another few games, if that, before Quenneville fires up the old line blender again.
– Patrick Sharp’s PP time has taken a dip to the tune of about two shifts less per game in his return to the lineup. I wouldn’t sweat that one too much as priori to the injury he led the team in PP TOI and will probably do so again soon. Since returning, Sharp has a goal on 13 shots and -2 rating.
Lane Myer
